.. _4_sensitivity_analysis:

*******************************************************
Sensitivity Analysis: Diagnostic & Exploratory Modeling
*******************************************************

.. include:: 4.1_understanding_errors_what_is_controlling_model_performance.rst

.. include:: 4.2_consequential_dynamics_what_is_controlling_model_behaviors_of_interest.rst

.. include:: 4.3_consequential_scenarios_what_is_controlling_consequential_outcomes.rst

.. note::
    The following articles are suggested as fundamental reading for the information presented in this section:

    * Gupta, H.V., Wagener, T., Liu, Y., 2008. Reconciling theory with observations: elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation. *Hydrological Processes: An International Journal* 22, 3802–3813.
    * Bankes, S., 1993. Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis. *Operations Research* 41, 435–449. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.3.435
    * Groves, D.G., Lempert, R.J., 2007. A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. *Global Environmental Change* 17, 73–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.006


    The following articles can be used as supplemental reading:

    * Marchau, V.A.W.J., Walker, W.E., Bloemen, P.J.T.M., Popper, S.W. (Eds.), 2019. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2
    * Sterman, J.D., 1994. Learning in and about complex systems. System Dynamics Review 10, 291–330. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.4260100214